Afghan Transition – Issues beyond Security!

I am quite confident that by now most of the readers must have read numerous stories on Afghan transition!

Here is a quick recap. On 22 March 2011 (on Nowruz- the Persian New Year and the first day of spring), Afghanistan’s president, Mr Hamid Karzai, announced the seven areas of Afghanistan [four provincial capitals of Herat (Herat city), Helmand (Lashkar Gah town), Laghman (Mehtar Lam town) and Balkh (Mazar-e-Sharif city); and three provinces of Bamiyan, Panjshir and Kabul (except for Surobi district)] would be included in the first phase of a gradual transition- aimed to be achieved by the end of 2014. Afghan transition implementation, in process now, was thus aimed to start in the following three areas:

•           Security;

•           Governance; and

•           Development.

For all those number crunchers, there are 34 provinces in Afghanistan with a population of around 25 million (Afghanistan Statistical Book 2009-10). The population affected by the proposed transition would thus be roughly 20% of the total population.

In this article, I am trying to explore key transitional issues related with the Development aspect, which lie beyond the Security and the Governance aspect, that may have detrimental effects on country’s sustainability/stabilisation if not looked into now.

I must also mention here that the whole transitional process is currently being led by a prominent politician Dr. Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, who was also a nominee to succeed Mr Kofi Annan as the Secretary General of the United Nations at the end of 2006. A conference with an the aim to assess the current transition preparation, identifying the problems and coming up with solutions for better implementation of the transition process was held recently in Kabul in June 2011. At the close out Mr Ghani said, "I am very proud of our security ministers and governors. There is a full agreement on the transition process. The transition process will succeed no matter what (Source: ISAF Headquarters Office Kabul).” At the time of writing this article the Security transition has already taken place at Bamyan, Heart, Lashkar Gah, Mazar-e-Sharif and Mehtar Lam.

Right, coming back to Development aspect of transition and lumping it together with the other aspects, first of all I am not entirely sure how this area would be addressed and what exactly the Afghan government means by transitioning the Development aspect to Afghans. One possible explanation could be that from now onwards Afghans would be responsible for taking decisions on what development initiatives they need to introduce in those seven areas and possibly other areas in future. In other words the aim of a civil transition could be to set up a fully integrated and competent Afghan civic system in each province to administer everything from education to justice to healthcare to hard infrastructure. At present various contractors, consultants, non-government organisations, international development organisations, North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), International Security Assistance Office (ISAF) etc. provide these services.

My major concerns, however, are:

a)     Albeit that the Development and Security aspects are inter-related, more so in case of Afghanistan, I am not sure it should be part of the transition process per se;

b)     Competence - In line with the Security aspect, where Afghans now have their own forces, I do not believe there are enough competent resources in the country who can also take key decisions on the Development aspects all by themselves. In addition, even if there are some competent people present at the top, one will still require competent workers-won’t one? Therefore, is there any point in having an army of only Generals, in which there are no soldiers to fight for? In any case the news of Afghan security forces not being able to withstand pressure from insurgents (in the already transitioned areas) that have fought the well-equipped and trained troops from the NATO countries resurface every other day.

c)     Clarity – Are the officers who are going to assume these obligations clear about their roles and responsibilities?

d)     Readiness/Willingness- Are the current civic officers/workers ready for this transition? Have they been well trained to take the ownership?

To conclude I would say, even if one has to transfer the responsibilities of the Development aspects to the local nationals, it should be seen as a process rather than a mere launch and an end date i.e. I do not believe that mere transferring the development responsibilities within next three years to locals would solve the purpose of getting a stablised country. Infact every effort should be put in not only to stablise the country but also avoiding the recurrence of the situation in Afghanistan pre 2002. However that also does not mean that the civil transition process should not/cannot be initiated now. One needs to spend time and effort to build the capacity first, the call of the day, I think! Also the responsibility for a successful and sustained transition lies both with Afghan Nationals and International Community.